Notes from Chart Guys video: Can TSLA Cup and Handle?

Summary of Dan’s (The Charting Man) market evaluation. All credit goes to The Chart Guys for the original analysis and insights.

The Big Picture

Weekly bearish candle - but let’s add context:

Still filling gaps from the way down, and more importantly: No daily downtrend confirmed in 6 months. Bulls maintain control until proven otherwise.

Earnings season was mixed:

  • Amazon: Bullish
  • Meta: Bearish
  • Microsoft/Apple: Mixed
  • Google: Bullish

What came after? Consolidation mode. NVDA went +20% in 5 days ($176→$212) - some pullback is healthy.

Red Flags vs Healthy Consolidation

Red flag would be: All major sectors weak at the same time

  • SMH (semiconductors) consolidating
  • XLF (financials) breaks sucker punch low
  • XLV (healthcare) to upper 130s
  • All happening together = problem

What we’re seeing: Sector rotation

  • Semiconductors consolidating after huge run
  • Biotech extremely strong (XBI)
  • Quantum names building weekly higher lows
  • Financials holding sideways

Verdict: Healthy rotation, not a red flag.

Top Watch: Tesla (TSLA)

Potential weekly cup and handle forming:

Support: $439 (daily higher low) Resistance: $470.75, then all-time highs

Catalysts coming:

  • Elon compensation vote Thursday 11/6
  • Potential flying car unveil (mentioned on Rogan interview)

My approach:

  • Day trading actively
  • Sizing up swing position with risk-free entries
  • Stop moved under $439 - break makes cup/handle less likely

The setup: If support holds and we get a handle formation above $439, this could be a strong breakout play into the events next week.

Quantum Sector Watch

Daily ranges tightening across all quantum names - scouting weekly higher lows:

IONQ (Critical):

  • Earnings Wednesday will dictate the entire sector
  • 4-hour inside bars broke bull on Friday
  • Bulls need to get over $65.50

QBTS (Stronger):

  • Daily uptrend confirmed
  • Weekly higher low off EMA 12

RGTI (Stronger):

  • Daily uptrend confirmed
  • Building weekly higher low structure

Not a blowoff top yet - would need to break consolidation lows for longer-term top confirmation. Right now just healthy consolidation after massive run.

Biotech Going Parabolic

XBI (Biotech ETF) - Extremely strong sector:

  • Daily EMA 12 rider for months
  • 6-7 year monthly base held (5% range)
  • Then +65% straight up to 3.5 year highs
  • Resistance in the 118s

Strategy: NOT shorting the strongest sector in the market. Weekly consolidation will come eventually, but don’t fight this strength.

Other Setups

CRML (Rare Earth):

  • Scouting weekly higher low after 500% surge (6→36)
  • Then 65-70% pullback
  • Daily inside bar Friday
  • If breaks bull, weekly higher low shaping up
  • Resistance: 1388 and 1640 (double top zone)
  • MP earnings Thursday will impact sector

AAPL: Weekly cup and handle confirmed

PLTR: Weekly cup and handle confirmed, keeps going higher, earnings coming

Silver/Gold:

  • Scouting weekly higher lows as most likely scenario in November
  • Silver: Potential 12-hour inverse head and shoulders
  • Gold: 11-month monthly stair step, monthly consolidation inevitable

What I’m Passing On

CCJ (Uranium):

  • Daily higher low most likely
  • But earnings Wednesday - too close, passing on swing

META:

  • Big bear reaction to earnings
  • Looking for bounce play - want gap down Monday for entry

Most names with earnings this week:

  • Many good setups but must pass
  • Don’t swing trade within a week of earnings
  • Need time to build profit cushion first

Risk Management Philosophy

Two key concepts this week:

1. Eliminate bias to make money

  • Trade the chart, not your emotions
  • Works for Tesla, Bitcoin, anything
  • Correlation analysis helps: watch how stocks trade vs NASDAQ
  • “Don’t short quantum today” = saves money even if doesn’t make money

2. Knowing how NOT to act is valuable

  • Information value isn’t just about making money
  • Preventing bad trades (fighting momentum) is just as valuable
  • Don’t try to nail the top - wait for confirmation

Being cautious as a bull is fine - taking longs off the table if uncomfortable is good risk management. But don’t aggressively look short against uptrends until bears give you a reason.

Key Levels

NASDAQ:

  • Weekly EMA 12: Support
  • Daily inside bar Friday after 4-hour equilibrium tightening
  • First daily downtrend in 6 months would need big pullback to create space

SPY:

  • Nearly hit hourly oversold Friday (just missed)
  • Looking for hourly oversold to mark daily higher lows
  • Daily EMA 12 coming into play

SMH (Semiconductors):

  • Lead bull sector still in control
  • Weekly stair step: Higher low every week for 2 months
  • Space for daily higher low with tons of room
  • Key concept: NVDA → SMH → NASDAQ → S&P 500 (importance chain)

Ticker Watchlist

Strong Bullish:

  • TSLA: TOP WATCH - weekly cup/handle potential, support $439, resistance $470.75
  • XBI (Biotech): Daily EMA 12 rider, extremely strong sector
  • AAPL, PLTR: Weekly cup and handles confirmed

Cautious Bullish:

  • QBTS, RGTI: Daily uptrends confirmed, scouting weekly higher lows
  • IONQ: Critical watch - earnings Wednesday dictates sector
  • CRML: Scouting weekly higher low, daily inside bar Friday

Neutral/Watch:

  • NVDA: Up 20% in 5 days, consolidation inevitable
  • XLF (Financials): Sideways all year, waiting for resolution
  • Gold, Silver: Scouting weekly higher lows (most likely)

Bounce Watch:

  • META: Big bear earnings reaction, want gap down Monday for entry

Bottom Line

Bulls still in control with no red flags. Weekly bearish candle needs context - we’re filling gaps and consolidating after strong runs (NVDA +20% in 5 days).

Sector rotation is healthy: biotech extremely strong while semiconductors consolidate. This is normal market behavior.

Tesla is my top watch - potential weekly cup and handle with catalysts next week (compensation vote 11/6, potential flying car unveil).

Quantum sector tightening with IONQ earnings Wednesday determining direction. Not a blowoff top yet - just healthy consolidation.

Strategy: Bullish bias until proven otherwise, but being cautious and taking profits is fine. Don’t fight trends as an aggressive bear. Weekly higher lows most likely scenario for metals, quantum, and rare earth names in November.

Note: I’m a member of The Chart Guys private Slack community and highly recommend it for anyone serious about learning technical analysis.

This is my personal analysis for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk including potential loss of capital.