Notes from Chart Guys video: BTC ETH KEY Resistance tests
Summary of Dan’s (The Charting Man) market evaluation. All credit goes to The Chart Guys for the original analysis and insights.
Market Context
NASDAQ continues in blue sky breakout territory - meltup mode in full effect. Bulls control the broader market with no red flags.
Key catalyst this week: FOMC Wednesday 2 PM - this will dictate whether Bitcoin clears $116K or rejects back to $110K.
Positive news: US-China trade progress over the weekend providing bullish tailwind.
Sector rotation: Gold topped (pulling back for a week), capital rotating into crypto.
Bitcoin at the Gate
Critical Resistance: $116,000 Key Support: $113,400
Bulls are trying to retest $116K for the second time. Bears are defending hard.
If bulls win (clear $116K): → Targets: $121K-$123K → Confirms weekly bounce (already over 50% retracement) → Crypto miners explode higher
If bears win (reject and break $113.4K): → Target: $110K → Weekly lower high stays in play → Crypto miners fail their weekly bull flags
Bottom line: FOMC tomorrow determines this battle.
Ethereum Struggling More
Critical Resistance: $4,300 (harder rejection than Bitcoin) Key Support: $4,000
Ethereum is showing more weakness than Bitcoin:
- 12-hour higher low confirmed
- Daily struggling with second resistance level
- If loses $4K, confirms the rejection
ETH/BTC Ratio - The critical chart:
- Rejecting at daily resistance zone
- This level is critical for a monthly uptrend (first in 3+ years!)
- If holds: Bitcoin > Ethereum (Bitcoin outperforms)
- If breaks: Ethereum > Bitcoin (altcoin season)
Best Setups: Crypto Miners
The risk/reward here is better than crypto itself because you get defined chart levels:
CIFR (TOP PICK):
- Testing all-time highs
- Weekly bull flag trying to confirm
- Needs Bitcoin > $116K to complete pattern
RIOT (STRONG):
- Beautiful back-test and hold of previous resistance
- Coming towards recent highs
- Showing relative strength vs other miners
CLSK (Needs confirmation):
- Potential weekly bull flag
- Waiting for daily uptrend confirmation
- Dependent on Bitcoin clearing $116K
All crypto miners need Bitcoin to clear $116K to confirm their weekly bull flags. If Bitcoin fails, these setups fail.
Risk Factors
Multi-timeframe equilibrium: After big volatility events (like FOMC), scout for equilibriums:
- 15-minute → 4-hour → 12-hour → daily
- These provide entry points
Overextended short-term: Monday’s straight up run makes it easy for bears to reject at current levels
Weekly lower high risk: Anything under Bitcoin’s all-time high keeps the possibility of a weekly lower high alive
Risk management principle: Bulls are “sprinting towards a hurdle” - better to build support levels first before testing major resistance
What I’m Avoiding
Most altcoins: 85% are in weekly downtrends or showing weak patterns
Only playing altcoins that show relative strength vs Bitcoin:
- XRP: One of the few showing strength
- ALGO: Broke one level, can’t break second - struggling
- LINK: Still resolving, no clear breakout
Gold/Metals: Topped and rotating out
The Setup
FOMC Wednesday 2 PM is the event. Here’s what I’m watching:
Bullish scenario:
- Bitcoin clears $116K with conviction
- Crypto miners confirm weekly bull flags
- CIFR, RIOT lead the way higher
- Target $120K+ on Bitcoin
Bearish scenario:
- Bitcoin rejects at $116K
- Breaks $113.4K support
- Crypto miners fail their patterns
- Target $110K on Bitcoin
I’m positioned in crypto miners with defined stops. If Bitcoin clears $116K tomorrow, these setups should work beautifully.
Ticker Watchlist
Bullish:
- NASDAQ: Blue sky breakout, meltup continues
- CIFR: Top pick - testing ATH, weekly bull flag
- RIOT: Strong - back-test holding, relative strength leader
- XRP: Relative strength vs Bitcoin
Neutral/Battle Zone:
- Bitcoin: $113.4K-$116K - FOMC decides
- Ethereum: Struggling at $4.3K resistance
Avoid:
- Most altcoins: 85% in weekly downtrends
- Gold/Metals: Topped, rotating out
Bottom Line
Bulls control the broader market, but crypto is at a critical inflection point. Bitcoin’s battle at $116K resistance will determine if crypto miners (CIFR, RIOT, CLSK) confirm their weekly bull flags or fail.
FOMC tomorrow at 2 PM is the catalyst. Either we break out to $120K+ or reject back to $110K.
Best risk/reward is in crypto miners rather than crypto itself - you get defined chart levels and less volatility while maintaining exposure to the move.
Note: I’m a member of The Chart Guys private Slack community and highly recommend it for anyone serious about learning technical analysis.
This is my personal analysis for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Crypto involves significant risk including potential loss of capital.